Nfl Game Analysis: 3 Reasons to Bet on Oakland (+9.5) in Week 3

Nfl Game Analysis: 3 Reasons to Bet on Oakland (+9.5) in Week 3

This particular match is interesting for the fact that both Buffalo and Oakland were favoured to cover the spread in separate high-percentage plays last week, and both ended up doing just that, ATS and straight-up.

This week, it appears that Buffalo will struggle versus an inflated 9 1/2 point spread; however, based on a number of reasons outlined below and while I am not bold enough to call an outright win for the Raiders, all signs point to a tightly fought contest.

So, why are the Bills facing potential trouble versus the spread this week?

Reason #1
Oakland finds themselves in an interesting Week 3 momentum situation that involves teams that lost their first game of the season, followed by a win in Week 2, and are now either 1st or 2nd in their division (the Raiders are currently in 2nd in the AFC West, behind Denver at 2-0).

Historically, teams ride their Week 2 turn-around to a spread-victory in Week 3 and they have been 29-3 ATS since 1994 and 7-1 ATS in the past 3 seasons.

Reason #2
Before Week 15 of the season, teams with a Big Rush Yardage % For of > 50 (58.7% of Oakland's rushing yardage has come on run plays of 10 or more yards so far) that also have a Play Book Execution Penalty Average Against of <= 1.0 per-game (the Raiders are actually averaging 1.0), are an astounding 128-60 ATS since 2001.

It's a fact: teams that can hurt opposing defenses with long gains on the ground (evidenced with a high BRY%F) that also take a low number of penalty calls related to the 'break-down' of offensive plays (i.e., ineligible receivers, too many men on the field, etc.), are an excellent wager against the spread, 7 years in a row.

Reason #3
Teams coming off a 4th Quarter Comeback (a game where a team that was losing at the start of the 4th quarter, came back to win SU) that gave up at least 30 Passing Attempts in this previous game, AND are currently facing an opponent with a Season Turn-over Differential of <= 0.5; happen to be a brutal 27-97 ATS since 1994 and 2-22 ATS in the past 3 seasons alone.

Buffalo is in just this spot, after opening the 4th quarter last week at Jacksonville, down 13-10, and coming away with the 20-16 victory. It's a classic let-down situation that will not be helping the Bill's cause this Sunday.

For more information on these trends, and a total of 6 pages stuffed with every team statistic imaginable, please visit the 'Articles' page on my site.

Oakland's Confidence Percentage for covering the spread in this game is: 66%

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Dennis Arthur, a self-professed statistics junkie and American Football fanatic, has been providing innovative NFL analysis based against the Vegas point spread since 1999. For more wagering orientated articles like this one along with specialized team ratings and winning selections versus the spread, visit his site at http://www.armchairanalysis.com.